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Tuesday, January 17, 2017

New Tables

Dear friends from America, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, UK and the rest of the world!

My blog has received > 4,000 unique visitors and I am very happy to share my work with you. I retired from playing online draw poker and then I created this blog to assist you all in increasing your chances of winning. I wrote six articles about draw poker, which were published in an online poker magazine from Las Vegas.

By far, the greatest number of visitors come from the U.S. The second most popular audience is Russia, followed by Poland, Germany, the UK, Latvia, Estonia and Ukraine!

Today, after a very long absence, I have the original raw data (tables) that were used to generate the winning strategy. But first, please see the original Table by Zadeh, which shows the chance of being dealt certain hands or better before the draw.

It is possible from this table to build a successful winning strategy for online fixed limit and pot-limit draw when you use the data of this table in conjunction with Zadeh's book.
But we want more accuracy. Therefore, with the help of a guy from Germany, I updated Zadeh's 1974 table, which you can see below (in two images).


What you are seeing here is the only complete, accurate and most up-to-date table of the chance to be dealt certain hands or better before the draw in the world. Prior to this blog post, only Zadeh's 1974 tables could be reliably used. Although Zadeh's book is out-of-print you can buy it cheaply online. (My copy cost only $2.00). Using that book and my tables, you can create a simple and complete winning strategy for online draw. Alternatively, just use the Tables and instructions I already created for you (see previous blog posts) to win! They are largely if not wholly accurate. But I still recommend Zadeh's book for relevant supplementary information.

If you are a smart and talented player who has experience, you could play $1-$2 fixed-limit online draw and expect to make as much as $6.00 profit per hour. If you make some mistakes you might earn only $4.00 per hour. If you are exceptionally gifted, you could easily make $10.00 per hour. To make more money, you would need to be very experienced with a consummate understanding of the psychology (and mathematics) of draw poker, and play at higher stakes, like $5-$10 fixed-limit draw -- or even higher!

You should never play at less than $1-$2. You want to start at this level of competition no matter how bad you play right now.
Inexperienced players must play only at fixed-limit until proving they can win more than they lose in the long run. Then you may consider either playing at the next higher limit or pot-limit.
Do not even think of no limit draw unless you are at least a semi-professional poker player.

Your goal is to begin at $1-$2 fixed-limit draw and once you can make your first $1,000, then you may wish to move up stakes, or try pot-limit draw.
Utilising the winning strategy presented herein, if you start with $80 and play $1-$2 fixed limit draw poker, your potential winnings are limitless but your chance to lose everything is probably <5%. To be more conservative, if you want a smaller `risk-of-ruin' then start with a bankroll of $120 or even $200.
You have the chance to improve your skill, win thousands of dollars while only risking a small sum (your bank of < $200.00). And you will never even have to make a bet of more than $2!
Good luck --- and keep this blog alive on the forums.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

New Tables for $1/2 Fixed Limit Draw High


To understand the tables, first look at the diagram below. It shows a full table of six players. The first player to act is labelled `5,’ the second player to act `4’ and so forth up to player `0,’ who is in the big blind.    


Strategy for the First Round
Opening Requirements

Table 1: What to Open and Raise with
POSITION
OPEN
RAISE
5
QQ
AA
4
JJ
KK
3
99
QQ
2
66
99
1
A
22


Table 1 is the same as the table in my September post.

Calling Requirements

Table 2: Calling against One Opponent who Opens (Bets) $1
Opener’s
Opener’s
Your Position

Position
Worst Hand
5 TO 2
1 TO 0

2 pair
JJ22
9922

AA
3322
AAk

KK
3322
AA
5
QQ
AA
KK
4
JJ
KK
QQ
3
99
QQ
TT
2
77
1010
99
1
44
88
66

Q
AQ high
A high

The hands in Table 2 were computed on the basis that you need a certain chance of winning in a showdown. Position 5 to 2 needs to have a higher chance of winning than position 1 to 0. This is because, in position 5 to 2 you have not contributed to the ante but in position 1 to 0 you have and your contribution is considered to be part of any call you make. If you are up against two players, increase requirements by one notch, for example QQ becomes KK.


Table 3: Calling against One Opponent who Opens (Raises) $2

Opener’s
Opener’s
Your Position


Position
Worst Hand
5 TO 2
1
0

3322
QQ22
JJ22
TT22
5
AA
8822
3322
AAk
4
KK
AAk
AAk
AA
3
QQ
AA
KKa
KKa

JJ
KKa
KK
QQa
2
99
QQ
JJa
TTa

77
JJ
TT
99a
1
44
99
88
77

Q
AK
AQ
A



You must have a slightly better hand in general when calling a raise in round one than when calling a bet, since your pot odds are less. If you are up against two players, increase requirements by one notch, for example QQ becomes KK.

Raising Requirements



Table 4: Raising
Opener’s
Opener’s
Min. Raising
Position
Worst Hand
Hand

AA
JJ22

KK
7722
5
QQ
3322
4
JJ
AA
3
99
KK
2
77
QQ
1
44
JJ

Q
44



Against a single opponent, raise according to Table 4. If there are two players then increase raising requirements up by one notch.



Table 5: Calling against a Re-raiser
Your
Re-raisers Worst
Call On
position
Minimum Hand

5
JJ22
KK22
4
7722
TT22
3
3322
9922
2
KK
AA

Sometimes, when you raise before the draw, someone will re-raise you. In that case, use Table 5. To illustrate, suppose you raised from position 5 and someone re-raises you – to find out whether to call simply look at Table 5, then look at “Your Position” 5, scroll across to “Call On” and you can see that you must not call unless you have at least KK22. This table is most useful when you have limited information.  If you know what kind of hand an opponent frequently re-raises with before the draw, then use that information instead.

Strategy for the Final Round
Betting

Table 6: Betting against a Single Opponent
Worst Hand he Opens With*
Minimum Betting Hand
8822
444
3322
222
AA
KK22
KK
JJ22
QQ
8822
JJ
3322
99
AAk
66
KK
22
JJa
A
99
Q
77

Table 6 shows what hands to bet with after the draw against a single opponent. To illustrate, if you figure your opponent drew three cards to JJ, you should bet after the draw if you make at least 3322, otherwise you should check. If you are second to speak, you may reduce requirements by one notch since the first player shows weakness by checking.  Lastly, if you are up against someone who bluffs more than he should, you may do better by checking even if you have a hand you could bet with and the same is true if your opponent raised before the draw.
*Or better. Example: an entry of KK means you figure your opponent opened on a pair of kings or better.



Table 7: Betting against Multiple Opponents
No. Of Players
Minimum Betting Hand
3
AA22, KK22, or QQ22


Table 7 shows you what to bet on after the draw when you are facing two other players, each of whom you figure drew three cards to a pair. If you draw three cards and are first to act with two other players ahead of you who each drew three cards, bet if you make atleast AA22 or better. If you are second to act, bet KK22 or better. If you are third to act, bet QQ22 or better.




Calling

Table 8: Minimum Calling Hands
Bets in Pot
Opponent’s Min Hand
2
3
4
3322
QQ22
JJ22
TT22
AA
6622
3322
3322
KK
AAk
AAk
AA
QQ
KKa
KKa
KKa
JJ
KKa
QQa
QQa
77
JJ
TT
99a
44
99
88
77
A
33
22
22
When you do not know how your opponent plays, follow Table 8. For someone who bluffs too much, call with any hand that can beat their bluff. For instance, if a player draws three cards to a pair, he should bluff 1-in-every-6 times in this situation. If you catch someone bluffing ¼ or ½ the time in this situation, then they are bluffing too much and you must call with less than Table 8 indicates. 

Raising
Approximate minimum raising hands are already provided in Winning Poker Systems on page 73 and do not require adjustment for Internet play.

Playing Heads-up
Included here is a special section for playing heads-up draw at the $1/2 tables.

Table 9: How to Play Heads-up

Opponent Raises on

Call With
Re-raise With

Fraction
Small blind
Big Blind

TT or better
1 in 4
QQa
QQ
KKa
77 or better
1 in 3
TTa
99a
QQa
22 or better
1 in 2
77a
66
TT
A or better
2 in 3
44
22
77
Anything
1 in 1
Anything
Anything
22

General Strategy
When you are in the small blind, you should call with an Ace high or better and raise with at least 22. If you are in the big blind and the small blind just calls, raise him with a pair of twos or better.
Using Table 9
Of course, part of the time you are going to get raised! In that case, one way to increase your chances of winning is to monitor how often he raises. You can track this during play with a pen and paper by noting how many times he raises relative to the total number of hands played. Look at the `Fraction’ column in Table 9 – if he raises once every two rounds on average (1 in 2), then he probably has at least 22, so you can call with 77a from the small blind and 66 from the big blind. You can raise him with TT or better. Once you know how he plays, try to see his worst starting hand when he raises and make a note of it. Once you’ve got his worst likely raising hand, it is very easy to call correctly: simply note his hand in the left column and call and raise according to the right columns! In the final round, you should bet according to Table 6.